RSI-14 Oversold + EMA-200 Filter Passes All Six Gates

We tested a mean-reversion strategy that buys when RSI-14 drops below 30, holds for a 2% profit target, and only trades when price is above the 200-period EMA. It passed all six gates with a 1.28% average profit per trade and a 90% win rate in both training and validation windows. The deflated Sharpe ratio (a measure that adjusts for multiple testing and overfitting risk) came in at 13.20, with a fluke probability of effectively zero.

The setup is straightforward: wait for RSI to signal oversold conditions on 15-minute bars, confirm price is above the long-term moving average to avoid counter-trend traps, and exit at a fixed 2% net profit. We added an ADX filter to skip entries when ADX exceeds 60, steering clear of strong trends where mean-reversion tends to fail. The strategy ran across BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, BNB, ADA, AVAX, LINK, and LTC.

The 90% win rate is high, but not suspicious in context: the strategy uses a fixed profit target and no explicit stop loss, so it holds through drawdowns until the target hits or the position is force-closed by our maximum-hold logic. That design inflates win rate but can lead to occasional large losses if a coin trends hard against the position. The backtest does not report trade count at the gene level, so we cannot verify statistical depth here. Treat this as a caution flag, not a deal-breaker, but ask for the full research log if you plan to allocate capital.

The regime filter (ADX below 60) and the EMA-200 gate are doing real work. Price above the 200 EMA ensures we are buying dips in an uptrend, not catching a falling knife. ADX keeps us out when the market is running too hot for mean-reversion to work.

This strategy has not yet logged forward-test trades, so live performance is unknown. The backtest results are strong, but forward testing will confirm whether the edge holds when latency, slippage, and real execution enter the picture.

You can test your own RSI or EMA ideas at stratproof.com/prove, or browse the full survivor registry at stratproof.com/survivors.