RSI 14 Below 35 With SMA 200 Filter, Low ADX Only

We tested a long-only strategy that buys RSI dips below 35, but only when price sits above its 200-period moving average and ADX reads below 30. It passed all six gates with a deflated Sharpe ratio (a measure adjusted for multiple testing and overfitting risk) of 8.08 and an 88.9% win rate across walk-forward training and validation. Average profit per trade landed at 0.444% after fees on 15-minute bars.

The setup is simple: wait for RSI 14 to fall below 35, confirm the close is above SMA 200, and verify ADX is under 30 to avoid strong trending markets. Exit when net profit hits a threshold, which the strategy determines dynamically. We tested this on BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP.

The deflated Sharpe of 8.08 puts the probability of this being a fluke at effectively zero after adjusting for the thousands of configurations the lab tested in parallel. The win rate remained consistent between training and validation windows, which is a good sign for robustness. The strategy avoids high-ADX regimes, meaning it sits out when markets are in strong directional moves and only acts when chop or range conditions appear.

Now the caveats. This strategy has generated exactly zero trades in forward testing so far. That means every number above comes from backtest, not live paper trading. The ADX-below-30 filter is restrictive, and recent market conditions may not have triggered the entry criteria. Four coins on 15-minute bars is reasonable coverage, but not exhaustive. Until we see forward trades, treat the backtest metrics as promising but unproven in real-time execution.

The regime filter is both a strength and a limitation. By design, this strategy will not trade during trending markets, which means it will miss breakout moves but also avoid many whipsaws. If you trade in markets that oscillate between trend and chop, this selective participation may suit you. If you prefer strategies that stay active across all conditions, this one will frustrate you with long idle periods.

Check the full survivor registry at stratproof.com/survivors to compare this against other graduated strategies, or head to stratproof.com/prove to test your own RSI variant with different thresholds or regime filters.